Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Seven Group Holdings Limited (SVW.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$285.24 - $567.59$531.91
Multi-Stage$87.38 - $95.67$91.45
Blended Fair Value$311.68
Current Price$37.24
Upside736.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.87%1.19%0.450.450.450.400.380.370.400.370.380.39
YoY Growth--0.30%0.00%11.92%4.77%2.81%-6.79%9.18%-2.37%-4.32%-2.08%
Dividend Yield--1.21%1.82%2.71%1.97%2.23%1.97%2.10%3.35%6.24%6.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,061.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)334.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)726.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)212.20132.6379.58
Cash Retained (M)726.30726.30726.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-212.20-132.63-79.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)514.10593.68646.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)371.76371.76371.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.381.601.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.900.900.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.381.601.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.282.502.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$285.24$531.91$567.59
Upside / Downside665.94%1,328.33%1,424.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,061.001,129.971,203.411,281.631,364.941,453.661,497.27
Payout Ratio31.55%43.24%54.93%66.62%78.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)334.70488.56661.00853.801,068.871,308.301,384.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)455.10459.41463.72
Year 2 PV (M)573.56584.49595.51
Year 3 PV (M)690.11709.93730.11
Year 4 PV (M)804.78835.73867.56
Year 5 PV (M)917.58961.901,007.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,043.8330,446.6531,903.17
Equity Value (M)32,484.9633,998.1135,568.00
Shares Outstanding (M)371.76371.76371.76
Fair Value$87.38$91.45$95.67
Upside / Downside134.64%145.57%156.91%

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