Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Stolt-Nielsen Limited (SNI.OL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$365.24 - $1,423.39$1,019.96
Multi-Stage$175.00 - $191.44$183.07
Blended Fair Value$601.51
Current Price$32.35
Upside1,759.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.82%8.69%2.512.261.000.500.250.500.511.031.031.06
YoY Growth--11.11%124.84%99.75%99.25%-50.00%-1.95%-50.08%-0.13%-2.82%-2.53%
Dividend Yield--10.69%6.03%3.25%2.83%1.81%4.61%3.83%7.81%6.37%11.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)382.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)134.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)247.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76.4047.7528.65
Cash Retained (M)247.99247.99247.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-76.40-47.75-28.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)171.58200.23219.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)53.3853.3853.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.213.754.11
LTM Dividend per Share2.512.512.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.213.754.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.736.266.62
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$365.24$1,019.96$1,423.39
Upside / Downside1,029.02%3,052.89%4,299.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)382.02406.85433.30461.46491.45523.40539.10
Payout Ratio35.09%46.07%57.05%68.03%79.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)134.03187.43247.20313.95388.33471.06498.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)173.27174.92176.56
Year 2 PV (M)211.27215.29219.36
Year 3 PV (M)248.05255.17262.43
Year 4 PV (M)283.65294.56305.78
Year 5 PV (M)318.09333.45349.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,106.428,497.968,904.49
Equity Value (M)9,340.759,771.3610,218.02
Shares Outstanding (M)53.3853.3853.38
Fair Value$175.00$183.07$191.44
Upside / Downside440.96%465.90%491.77%

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