Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk (SMKL.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.63 - $65.59$54.02
Multi-Stage$85.74 - $94.35$89.96
Blended Fair Value$71.99
Current Price$159.00
Upside-54.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%2.0012.0012.007.964.970.000.000.007.310.00
YoY Growth---83.33%0.00%50.80%60.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.34%6.19%4.05%1.92%2.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,675.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,500.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,175.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,535.042,209.401,325.64
Cash Retained (M)12,175.1912,175.1912,175.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,535.04-2,209.40-1,325.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,640.169,965.7910,849.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,418.093,418.093,418.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.532.923.17
LTM Dividend per Share1.611.611.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.532.923.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.144.524.78
WACC / Discount Rate7.29%7.29%7.29%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$43.63$54.02$65.59
Upside / Downside-72.56%-66.03%-58.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,675.1917,498.4417,323.4617,150.2216,978.7216,808.9317,313.20
Payout Ratio31.12%42.89%54.67%66.45%78.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,500.007,505.729,470.7711,395.7813,281.3315,128.0416,014.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.29%7.29%7.29%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)6,924.886,995.557,066.21
Year 2 PV (M)8,061.688,227.058,394.09
Year 3 PV (M)8,949.619,226.399,508.81
Year 4 PV (M)9,623.2610,022.1010,433.21
Year 5 PV (M)10,113.0710,639.6911,188.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)249,387.18262,373.35275,894.95
Equity Value (M)293,059.69307,484.11322,485.27
Shares Outstanding (M)3,418.093,418.093,418.09
Fair Value$85.74$89.96$94.35
Upside / Downside-46.08%-43.42%-40.66%

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