Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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S Hotels and Resorts Public Company Limited (SHR.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.12 - $1.69$1.39
Multi-Stage$2.20 - $2.42$2.31
Blended Fair Value$1.85
Current Price$1.60
Upside15.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.020.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.020.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.77%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)475.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)161.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)314.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)95.1359.4635.67
Cash Retained (M)314.11314.11314.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-95.13-59.46-35.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)218.98254.66278.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,552.013,552.013,552.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.12
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.12$1.39$1.69
Upside / Downside-29.81%-13.15%5.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)475.65470.89466.18461.52456.91452.34465.91
Payout Ratio33.96%45.17%56.38%67.58%78.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)161.53212.70262.82311.92360.01407.10430.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)196.14198.14200.14
Year 2 PV (M)223.49228.07232.70
Year 3 PV (M)244.59252.15259.87
Year 4 PV (M)260.32271.10282.23
Year 5 PV (M)271.45285.59300.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,609.276,953.437,311.78
Equity Value (M)7,805.248,188.488,587.01
Shares Outstanding (M)3,552.013,552.013,552.01
Fair Value$2.20$2.31$2.42
Upside / Downside37.34%44.08%51.09%

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