Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shaniv Paper Industry Ltd (SHAN.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.37 - $48.31$45.27
Multi-Stage$6.52 - $7.12$6.81
Blended Fair Value$26.04
Current Price$5.35
Upside386.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.41%6.68%0.180.120.000.080.130.060.030.090.080.10
YoY Growth--53.69%0.00%-100.00%-37.50%100.00%100.00%-66.67%20.00%-23.08%8.33%
Dividend Yield--3.82%3.04%0.00%1.43%2.00%1.28%0.94%2.16%1.67%1.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.071.921.15
Cash Retained (M)2.912.912.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.07-1.92-1.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.160.991.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)63.2463.2463.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.93%6.93%6.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.37$45.27$48.31
Upside / Downside168.60%746.20%802.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15.3616.3617.4218.5619.7621.0521.68
Payout Ratio81.04%82.84%84.63%86.42%88.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.4513.5514.7516.0417.4318.9420.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.93%6.93%6.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)12.5612.6712.79
Year 2 PV (M)12.6612.9013.14
Year 3 PV (M)12.7513.1213.49
Year 4 PV (M)12.8413.3413.84
Year 5 PV (M)12.9313.5514.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)348.52365.36382.83
Equity Value (M)412.25430.93450.30
Shares Outstanding (M)63.2463.2463.24
Fair Value$6.52$6.81$7.12
Upside / Downside21.84%27.36%33.09%

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