Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SAP SE (SAP.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$199.24 - $1,109.41$363.14
Multi-Stage$134.50 - $147.14$140.71
Blended Fair Value$251.92
Current Price$258.15
Upside-2.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.46%7.95%2.182.042.441.861.591.521.421.271.171.12
YoY Growth--7.10%-16.40%31.30%17.06%4.13%7.12%11.47%8.78%4.71%10.22%
Dividend Yield--0.89%1.15%2.10%1.84%1.52%1.48%1.38%1.50%1.27%1.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,082.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,743.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,339.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,416.40885.25531.15
Cash Retained (M)4,339.004,339.004,339.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,416.40-885.25-531.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,922.603,453.753,807.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,175.731,175.731,175.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.492.943.24
LTM Dividend per Share2.332.332.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.492.943.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.825.275.57
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate4.89%5.89%6.89%
Fair Value$199.24$363.14$1,109.41
Upside / Downside-22.82%40.67%329.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,082.007,498.837,940.198,407.528,902.379,426.339,709.12
Payout Ratio38.73%48.99%59.24%69.49%79.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,743.003,673.344,703.705,842.627,099.328,483.708,980.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate4.89%5.89%6.89%
Year 1 PV (M)3,387.233,419.533,451.82
Year 2 PV (M)3,999.514,076.144,153.50
Year 3 PV (M)4,580.984,713.264,848.07
Year 4 PV (M)5,132.765,331.325,535.59
Year 5 PV (M)5,655.925,930.746,216.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)135,384.68141,962.84148,794.25
Equity Value (M)158,141.10165,433.84172,999.36
Shares Outstanding (M)1,175.731,175.731,175.73
Fair Value$134.50$140.71$147.14
Upside / Downside-47.90%-45.49%-43.00%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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