Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Parque Arauco S.A. (PARAUCO.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17,991.79 - $29,467.90$27,615.74
Multi-Stage$4,790.07 - $5,243.63$5,012.68
Blended Fair Value$16,314.21
Current Price$2,434.00
Upside570.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.32%9.53%69.1857.5037.426.8826.2144.3138.3735.0932.3427.13
YoY Growth--20.32%53.67%443.96%-73.76%-40.85%15.50%9.34%8.51%19.20%-2.54%
Dividend Yield--3.66%4.05%3.31%0.83%1.87%3.69%2.10%1.93%1.85%2.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)134,202.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56,811.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)77,390.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26,840.5216,775.3310,065.20
Cash Retained (M)77,390.6777,390.6777,390.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-26,840.52-16,775.33-10,065.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)50,550.1460,615.3467,325.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)905.72905.72905.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share55.8166.9374.33
LTM Dividend per Share62.7362.7362.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share55.8166.9374.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend118.54129.65137.06
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17,991.79$27,615.74$29,467.90
Upside / Downside639.19%1,034.58%1,110.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)134,202.62142,925.79152,215.97162,110.00172,647.15183,869.22189,385.30
Payout Ratio42.33%51.87%61.40%70.93%80.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56,811.9574,130.4393,460.27114,989.79138,923.28165,482.30175,181.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)69,150.4469,805.8970,461.35
Year 2 PV (M)81,324.9782,873.9884,437.61
Year 3 PV (M)93,337.1796,016.5498,746.71
Year 4 PV (M)105,188.63109,233.89113,394.72
Year 5 PV (M)116,880.95122,526.35128,387.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,872,558.624,059,604.654,253,809.37
Equity Value (M)4,338,440.784,540,061.304,749,237.55
Shares Outstanding (M)905.72905.72905.72
Fair Value$4,790.07$5,012.68$5,243.63
Upside / Downside96.80%105.94%115.43%

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