Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SilverSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.49 - $33.56$26.31
Multi-Stage$16.76 - $18.26$17.50
Blended Fair Value$21.91
Current Price$28.40
Upside-22.86%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.74%6.74%0.400.360.260.200.130.080.060.040.020.11
YoY Growth--11.50%37.70%32.45%54.68%57.59%37.81%38.98%101.34%-81.76%-44.95%
Dividend Yield--1.54%2.33%1.42%0.71%0.42%0.56%0.45%0.26%0.12%1.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)634.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)152.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)482.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)126.8279.2647.56
Cash Retained (M)482.00482.00482.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-126.82-79.26-47.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)355.18402.74434.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)366.65366.65366.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.971.101.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.971.101.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.381.511.60
WACC / Discount Rate12.62%12.62%12.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.49$26.31$33.56
Upside / Downside-27.86%-7.34%18.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)634.10675.32719.21765.96815.75868.77894.84
Payout Ratio23.99%37.19%50.39%63.59%76.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)152.10251.15362.43487.11626.47781.89827.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.62%12.62%12.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)220.90222.99225.09
Year 2 PV (M)280.39285.73291.12
Year 3 PV (M)331.47340.98350.68
Year 4 PV (M)374.96389.38404.21
Year 5 PV (M)411.62431.50452.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,527.524,746.204,973.25
Equity Value (M)6,146.866,416.796,696.49
Shares Outstanding (M)366.65366.65366.65
Fair Value$16.76$17.50$18.26
Upside / Downside-40.97%-38.38%-35.69%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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