Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Oceana Group Limited (OCE.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$286.57 - $563.87$395.83
Multi-Stage$294.02 - $320.88$307.21
Blended Fair Value$351.52
Current Price$57.99
Upside506.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.04%5.28%5.074.293.374.343.474.371.154.573.793.54
YoY Growth--18.38%27.03%-22.17%24.88%-20.51%281.45%-74.95%20.57%7.00%16.81%
Dividend Yield--7.36%5.68%6.34%6.52%5.60%6.29%1.38%5.55%3.33%3.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,078.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,589.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)489.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)415.74259.84155.90
Cash Retained (M)489.28489.28489.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-415.74-259.84-155.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)73.54229.44333.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)120.60120.60120.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.611.902.76
LTM Dividend per Share13.1813.1813.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.611.902.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.7915.0815.94
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Fair Value$286.57$395.83$563.87
Upside / Downside394.17%582.58%872.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,078.712,175.142,276.052,381.652,492.142,607.752,685.99
Payout Ratio76.46%79.17%81.88%84.58%87.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,589.431,722.061,863.572,014.512,175.452,346.982,484.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Year 1 PV (M)1,570.161,585.311,600.46
Year 2 PV (M)1,549.301,579.341,609.67
Year 3 PV (M)1,527.051,571.681,617.18
Year 4 PV (M)1,503.581,562.461,623.05
Year 5 PV (M)1,479.051,551.791,627.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,828.7729,197.5130,619.58
Equity Value (M)35,457.9137,048.0938,697.31
Shares Outstanding (M)120.60120.60120.60
Fair Value$294.02$307.21$320.88
Upside / Downside407.02%429.76%453.34%

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