Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

New Zealand Rural Land Company Limited (NZL.NZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.49 - $3.95$3.16
Multi-Stage$6.22 - $6.86$6.54
Blended Fair Value$4.85
Current Price$0.92
Upside426.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.794.242.54
Cash Retained (M)32.7432.7432.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.79-4.24-2.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.9628.5030.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)136.17136.17136.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate5.84%5.84%5.84%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.49$3.16$3.95
Upside / Downside170.94%243.15%329.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.9333.5933.2632.9332.6032.2733.24
Payout Ratio3.51%20.81%38.10%55.40%72.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.196.9912.6718.2423.7029.0430.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.84%5.84%5.84%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)6.546.606.67
Year 2 PV (M)11.0911.3111.54
Year 3 PV (M)14.9215.3915.86
Year 4 PV (M)18.1318.8919.66
Year 5 PV (M)20.7921.8723.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)775.45815.82857.87
Equity Value (M)846.91889.88934.60
Shares Outstanding (M)136.17136.17136.17
Fair Value$6.22$6.54$6.86
Upside / Downside576.03%610.33%646.02%

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