Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Novus Holdings Limited (NVS.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.17 - $17.47$14.76
Multi-Stage$21.08 - $23.06$22.05
Blended Fair Value$18.41
Current Price$6.30
Upside192.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.72%0.00%0.480.470.000.620.000.260.490.550.680.63
YoY Growth--0.93%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-46.35%-10.12%-20.00%8.92%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.93%10.88%0.00%30.41%0.00%13.85%11.82%11.91%7.98%5.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)572.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)486.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)85.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)114.4471.5242.91
Cash Retained (M)85.4185.4185.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-114.44-71.52-42.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)-29.0313.8942.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)327.95327.95327.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.090.040.13
LTM Dividend per Share1.481.481.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.090.040.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.401.531.61
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.17$14.76$17.47
Upside / Downside93.22%134.34%177.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)572.19566.46560.80555.19549.64544.14560.47
Payout Ratio85.07%86.06%87.04%88.03%89.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)486.78487.49488.14488.73489.26489.73518.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)441.76446.27450.77
Year 2 PV (M)400.85409.07417.38
Year 3 PV (M)363.69374.93386.41
Year 4 PV (M)329.93343.60357.70
Year 5 PV (M)299.26314.85331.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,079.135,343.625,619.00
Equity Value (M)6,914.627,232.347,562.34
Shares Outstanding (M)327.95327.95327.95
Fair Value$21.08$22.05$23.06
Upside / Downside234.68%250.05%266.03%

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