Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Northern Electric PLC (NTEA.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$89.99 - $521.07$167.64
Multi-Stage$97.83 - $107.46$102.55
Blended Fair Value$135.09
Current Price$1.24
Upside10,794.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-18.25%-11.36%0.070.380.900.200.200.190.000.180.780.16
YoY Growth---81.29%-58.24%342.10%2.36%3.25%0.00%-100.00%-77.30%385.44%-31.33%
Dividend Yield--5.67%32.13%73.19%13.76%11.70%13.76%0.00%10.97%52.92%11.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)342.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)285.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.4742.7925.68
Cash Retained (M)285.36285.36285.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.47-42.79-25.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)216.89242.56259.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)127.69127.69127.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.701.902.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.701.902.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.142.352.48
WACC / Discount Rate5.51%5.51%5.51%
Growth Rate3.06%4.06%5.06%
Fair Value$89.99$167.64$521.07
Upside / Downside7,157.48%13,418.96%41,921.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)342.34356.23370.68385.72401.37417.66430.19
Payout Ratio16.65%31.32%45.99%60.66%75.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.98111.56170.47233.97302.35375.89397.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.51%5.51%5.51%
Growth Rate3.06%4.06%5.06%
Year 1 PV (M)104.71105.73106.74
Year 2 PV (M)150.19153.12156.07
Year 3 PV (M)193.49199.18204.97
Year 4 PV (M)234.69243.94253.45
Year 5 PV (M)273.87287.42301.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,534.7612,105.3512,698.31
Equity Value (M)12,491.7113,094.7313,721.05
Shares Outstanding (M)127.69127.69127.69
Fair Value$97.83$102.55$107.46
Upside / Downside7,789.40%8,170.25%8,565.81%

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