Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Nokia Oyj (NOKIA.HE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.74 - $7.73$5.26
Multi-Stage$4.95 - $5.42$5.18
Blended Fair Value$5.22
Current Price$4.08
Upside27.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.24%-6.34%0.130.110.060.000.030.100.200.180.270.09
YoY Growth--18.33%73.09%3,822.22%-93.92%-73.57%-48.20%11.44%-35.38%193.16%-63.22%
Dividend Yield--2.74%3.44%1.43%0.03%0.80%3.57%3.87%3.96%5.47%1.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,160.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)754.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)406.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)232.00145.0087.00
Cash Retained (M)406.00406.00406.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-232.00-145.00-87.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)174.00261.00319.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,459.835,459.835,459.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate2.20%3.20%4.20%
Fair Value$3.74$5.26$7.73
Upside / Downside-8.41%28.89%89.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,160.001,197.171,235.531,275.121,315.981,358.151,398.89
Payout Ratio65.00%70.00%75.00%80.00%85.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)754.00838.02926.651,020.101,118.581,222.331,293.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate2.20%3.20%4.20%
Year 1 PV (M)776.67784.27791.87
Year 2 PV (M)795.95811.60827.41
Year 3 PV (M)812.08836.15860.69
Year 4 PV (M)825.30858.07891.82
Year 5 PV (M)835.83877.52920.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,965.2124,110.9125,301.88
Equity Value (M)27,011.0328,278.5329,594.53
Shares Outstanding (M)5,459.835,459.835,459.83
Fair Value$4.95$5.18$5.42
Upside / Downside21.26%26.95%32.85%

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