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Definitive Analysis

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Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK.VI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$119.03 - $188.55$150.75
Multi-Stage$259.20 - $285.65$272.16
Blended Fair Value$211.46
Current Price$76.40
Upside176.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.06%-10.98%1.514.233.533.223.223.223.123.021.214.23
YoY Growth---64.29%20.00%9.38%0.00%0.00%3.23%3.33%150.00%-71.43%-12.50%
Dividend Yield--1.92%3.80%2.30%2.00%1.84%2.85%2.74%2.45%1.11%4.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)235.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)199.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47.0129.3817.63
Cash Retained (M)199.70199.70199.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-47.01-29.38-17.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)152.69170.32182.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.8619.8619.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.698.589.17
LTM Dividend per Share1.781.781.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.698.589.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.4710.3610.95
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-1.52%-0.52%0.48%
Fair Value$119.03$150.75$188.55
Upside / Downside55.80%97.32%146.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)235.06233.84232.63231.42230.22229.02235.90
Payout Ratio15.04%30.03%45.02%60.02%75.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.3570.23104.74138.89172.68206.12218.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-1.52%-0.52%0.48%
Year 1 PV (M)65.3966.0566.72
Year 2 PV (M)90.8192.6694.53
Year 3 PV (M)112.12115.57119.09
Year 4 PV (M)129.80135.16140.67
Year 5 PV (M)144.27151.74159.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,604.214,842.765,091.11
Equity Value (M)5,146.605,403.955,671.65
Shares Outstanding (M)19.8619.8619.86
Fair Value$259.20$272.16$285.65
Upside / Downside239.27%256.23%273.88%

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