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Definitive Analysis

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Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (MLL.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.43 - $189.56$76.88
Multi-Stage$38.97 - $42.76$40.83
Blended Fair Value$58.86
Current Price$4.66
Upside1,163.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.001.200.200.001.000.250.300.300.15
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%500.00%0.00%-100.00%300.00%-16.67%0.00%100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%21.82%3.39%0.00%12.27%4.42%4.26%4.20%1.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.351.470.88
Cash Retained (M)10.9710.9710.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.35-1.47-0.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.629.5010.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.967.967.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.081.191.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.081.191.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.181.291.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate3.75%4.75%5.75%
Fair Value$44.43$76.88$189.56
Upside / Downside853.35%1,549.86%3,967.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11.7712.3312.9113.5314.1714.8415.29
Payout Ratio6.76%23.41%40.06%56.70%73.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.802.895.177.6710.3913.3614.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate3.75%4.75%5.75%
Year 1 PV (M)2.682.712.73
Year 2 PV (M)4.474.564.65
Year 3 PV (M)6.176.356.53
Year 4 PV (M)7.778.078.39
Year 5 PV (M)9.299.7410.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)279.67293.41307.68
Equity Value (M)310.04324.84340.19
Shares Outstanding (M)7.967.967.96
Fair Value$38.97$40.83$42.76
Upside / Downside736.26%776.16%817.59%

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