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Definitive Analysis

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Migros Ticaret A.S. (MGROS.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,550.83 - $6,918.85$6,483.98
Multi-Stage$1,070.96 - $1,172.62$1,120.86
Blended Fair Value$3,802.42
Current Price$445.00
Upside754.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%11.173.680.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--203.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.31%0.86%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,273.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,970.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,302.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,254.61784.13470.48
Cash Retained (M)4,302.604,302.604,302.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,254.61-784.13-470.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,047.993,518.473,832.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)180.31180.31180.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share16.9019.5121.25
LTM Dividend per Share10.9310.9310.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share16.9019.5121.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend27.8330.4432.18
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,550.83$6,483.98$6,918.85
Upside / Downside697.94%1,357.07%1,454.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,273.056,680.807,115.057,577.528,070.068,594.628,852.46
Payout Ratio31.41%43.13%54.85%66.56%78.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,970.452,881.373,902.385,043.956,317.437,735.168,188.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,684.472,709.912,735.36
Year 2 PV (M)3,387.263,451.783,516.90
Year 3 PV (M)4,078.964,196.054,315.36
Year 4 PV (M)4,759.694,942.745,131.01
Year 5 PV (M)5,429.595,691.845,964.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)172,766.80181,111.50189,775.58
Equity Value (M)193,106.77202,103.82211,438.34
Shares Outstanding (M)180.31180.31180.31
Fair Value$1,070.96$1,120.86$1,172.62
Upside / Downside140.66%151.88%163.51%

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