Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Mercantil Financeira S.A. - Crédito, Financiamento e Investimento (MERC4.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.77 - $15.88$12.51
Multi-Stage$17.20 - $18.90$18.03
Blended Fair Value$15.27
Current Price$12.30
Upside24.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.51%0.00%0.220.080.080.100.120.170.220.000.000.00
YoY Growth--182.21%-5.81%-12.61%-21.07%-28.67%-23.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.34%1.13%1.29%1.18%1.16%1.76%2.92%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.324.572.74
Cash Retained (M)24.4024.4024.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.32-4.57-2.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.0819.8321.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41.0041.0041.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.480.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.480.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.780.83
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-0.25%0.75%1.75%
Fair Value$9.77$12.51$15.88
Upside / Downside-20.56%1.72%29.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36.5836.8537.1337.4137.6937.9739.11
Payout Ratio33.30%44.64%55.98%67.32%78.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.1816.4520.7825.1829.6434.1736.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-0.25%0.75%1.75%
Year 1 PV (M)15.2215.3715.52
Year 2 PV (M)17.7818.1418.50
Year 3 PV (M)19.9320.5421.15
Year 4 PV (M)21.7022.5923.50
Year 5 PV (M)23.1424.3225.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)607.20638.25670.56
Equity Value (M)704.97739.21774.79
Shares Outstanding (M)41.0041.0041.00
Fair Value$17.20$18.03$18.90
Upside / Downside39.81%46.60%53.66%

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