Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Methanex Corporation (MEOH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.14 - $58.32$45.38
Multi-Stage$69.72 - $76.73$73.16
Blended Fair Value$59.27
Current Price$33.10
Upside79.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.69%-5.72%0.710.710.600.350.541.581.511.451.411.39
YoY Growth--0.99%16.97%72.88%-35.58%-65.66%4.46%4.12%2.73%1.62%8.13%
Dividend Yield--2.03%1.58%1.30%0.64%1.47%12.95%2.57%2.40%3.01%4.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)213.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)162.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.7626.7216.03
Cash Retained (M)162.31162.31162.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.76-26.72-16.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)119.56135.59146.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)70.0370.0370.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.711.942.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.730.730.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.711.942.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.442.672.82
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-0.56%0.44%1.44%
Fair Value$35.14$45.38$58.32
Upside / Downside6.16%37.11%76.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)213.78214.73215.68216.63217.59218.56225.11
Payout Ratio24.08%37.26%50.45%63.63%76.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.4780.01108.80137.84167.14196.70208.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-0.56%0.44%1.44%
Year 1 PV (M)74.4875.2375.98
Year 2 PV (M)94.2896.1998.11
Year 3 PV (M)111.20114.58118.04
Year 4 PV (M)125.51130.64135.92
Year 5 PV (M)137.50144.55151.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,339.244,561.854,793.51
Equity Value (M)4,882.215,123.045,373.45
Shares Outstanding (M)70.0370.0370.03
Fair Value$69.72$73.16$76.73
Upside / Downside110.63%121.02%131.82%

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