Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ipsen S.A. (IPN.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$415.66 - $1,880.80$728.32
Multi-Stage$359.14 - $393.84$376.17
Blended Fair Value$552.24
Current Price$101.10
Upside446.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.66%4.28%1.191.191.190.991.001.000.990.840.840.84
YoY Growth--0.00%0.30%19.78%-0.36%0.00%0.24%18.23%0.29%0.00%6.87%
Dividend Yield--1.08%1.11%1.18%1.23%1.47%1.26%0.88%0.83%1.22%1.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,129.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)216.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)912.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)225.82141.1484.68
Cash Retained (M)912.80912.80912.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-225.82-141.14-84.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)686.98771.66828.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)83.4383.4383.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.239.259.93
LTM Dividend per Share2.592.592.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.239.259.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.8311.8412.52
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate3.83%4.83%5.83%
Fair Value$415.66$728.32$1,880.80
Upside / Downside311.14%620.39%1,760.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,129.101,183.621,240.771,300.681,363.481,429.311,472.19
Payout Ratio19.16%33.33%47.49%61.66%75.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)216.30394.45589.29802.031,033.941,286.381,361.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate3.83%4.83%5.83%
Year 1 PV (M)366.73370.26373.79
Year 2 PV (M)509.38519.23529.19
Year 3 PV (M)644.55663.35682.52
Year 4 PV (M)772.53802.72833.79
Year 5 PV (M)893.59937.46983.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,776.9528,091.5129,457.20
Equity Value (M)29,963.7231,384.5432,859.52
Shares Outstanding (M)83.4383.4383.43
Fair Value$359.14$376.17$393.84
Upside / Downside255.23%272.07%289.56%

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