Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.89 - $12.21$9.89
Multi-Stage$10.31 - $11.25$10.77
Blended Fair Value$10.33
Current Price$6.80
Upside51.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS52.75%3.24%0.360.240.080.070.070.040.070.070.030.21
YoY Growth--52.86%181.13%18.56%1.51%60.79%-37.40%0.43%118.42%-84.79%-20.81%
Dividend Yield--5.34%4.25%2.15%1.30%1.83%2.16%3.04%1.97%0.95%11.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.413.382.03
Cash Retained (M)7.147.147.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.41-3.38-2.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.743.765.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33.0933.0933.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.110.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.110.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.76
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate1.45%2.45%3.45%
Fair Value$7.89$9.89$12.21
Upside / Downside16.02%45.45%79.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27.0327.6928.3729.0729.7830.5131.43
Payout Ratio73.58%76.86%80.15%83.43%86.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.8921.2922.7424.2525.8327.4629.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate1.45%2.45%3.45%
Year 1 PV (M)19.1919.3819.57
Year 2 PV (M)18.4818.8419.21
Year 3 PV (M)17.7618.2918.83
Year 4 PV (M)17.0517.7318.43
Year 5 PV (M)16.3417.1618.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)252.31264.99278.18
Equity Value (M)341.13356.40372.24
Shares Outstanding (M)33.0933.0933.09
Fair Value$10.31$10.77$11.25
Upside / Downside51.62%58.41%65.45%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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