Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hagar hf (HAGA.IC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$679.42 - $1,323.85$1,240.65
Multi-Stage$205.30 - $224.77$214.86
Blended Fair Value$727.75
Current Price$102.00
Upside613.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS16.82%7.96%2.292.242.051.330.001.051.020.001.811.81
YoY Growth--1.90%9.27%54.50%0.00%-100.00%2.66%0.00%-100.00%0.00%69.97%
Dividend Yield--2.24%2.89%3.11%1.91%0.00%2.13%2.39%0.00%3.43%3.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,344.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,522.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,822.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,468.80918.00550.80
Cash Retained (M)4,822.004,822.004,822.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,468.80-918.00-550.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,353.203,904.004,271.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,103.251,103.251,103.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.043.543.87
LTM Dividend per Share2.292.292.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.043.543.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.335.826.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$679.42$1,240.65$1,323.85
Upside / Downside566.09%1,116.32%1,197.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,344.007,821.368,329.758,871.189,447.8110,061.9210,363.77
Payout Ratio34.34%45.47%56.60%67.74%78.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,522.003,556.594,715.026,009.027,451.329,055.729,586.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,313.553,344.963,376.36
Year 2 PV (M)4,092.634,170.584,249.27
Year 3 PV (M)4,859.404,998.895,141.03
Year 4 PV (M)5,613.995,829.886,051.95
Year 5 PV (M)6,356.556,663.576,982.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)202,262.06212,031.39222,174.62
Equity Value (M)226,498.17237,039.28247,975.58
Shares Outstanding (M)1,103.251,103.251,103.25
Fair Value$205.30$214.86$224.77
Upside / Downside101.28%110.64%120.36%

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