Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hensoldt AG (HAG.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.41 - $11.51$9.31
Multi-Stage$17.41 - $19.16$18.27
Blended Fair Value$13.79
Current Price$97.40
Upside-85.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.400.280.230.120.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--43.75%23.08%85.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.65%0.64%0.68%0.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)91.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.2011.386.83
Cash Retained (M)33.0033.0033.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.20-11.38-6.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.8021.6326.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)115.47115.47115.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.190.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.190.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.41$9.31$11.51
Upside / Downside-92.39%-90.44%-88.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)91.0090.0989.1988.3087.4186.5489.14
Payout Ratio63.74%68.99%74.24%79.49%84.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.0062.1566.2270.1974.0877.8982.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)57.8658.4559.04
Year 2 PV (M)57.3858.5659.75
Year 3 PV (M)56.6358.3860.17
Year 4 PV (M)55.6457.9460.32
Year 5 PV (M)54.4657.2960.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,728.871,818.901,912.64
Equity Value (M)2,010.842,109.532,212.16
Shares Outstanding (M)115.47115.47115.47
Fair Value$17.41$18.27$19.16
Upside / Downside-82.12%-81.24%-80.33%

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