Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

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Sector

Gold Road Resources Limited (GOR.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.38 - $56.65$53.09
Multi-Stage$8.14 - $8.92$8.52
Blended Fair Value$30.81
Current Price$3.27
Upside842.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.010.010.020.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---13.45%22.30%-25.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.73%0.69%1.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)309.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)272.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.9338.7123.22
Cash Retained (M)272.14272.14272.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.93-38.71-23.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)210.20233.43248.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,087.011,087.011,087.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.38$53.09$56.65
Upside / Downside615.07%1,523.61%1,632.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)309.65329.78351.22374.05398.36424.25436.98
Payout Ratio12.12%27.69%43.27%58.85%74.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.5291.33151.97220.11296.47381.83404.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)84.9285.7386.53
Year 2 PV (M)131.41133.91136.44
Year 3 PV (M)176.99182.08187.25
Year 4 PV (M)221.68230.21238.98
Year 5 PV (M)265.50278.32291.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,965.958,350.718,750.19
Equity Value (M)8,846.469,260.959,691.03
Shares Outstanding (M)1,087.011,087.011,087.01
Fair Value$8.14$8.52$8.92
Upside / Downside148.88%160.54%172.64%

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