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Definitive Analysis

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Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A. (GEPA3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.79 - $67.72$54.89
Multi-Stage$101.52 - $111.93$106.62
Blended Fair Value$80.76
Current Price$33.90
Upside138.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.79%-0.51%4.870.781.342.941.332.553.263.663.592.02
YoY Growth--522.36%-41.56%-54.45%121.69%-48.07%-21.62%-11.06%2.10%77.84%-60.66%
Dividend Yield--14.75%3.07%5.88%10.49%3.23%6.71%9.17%9.63%10.25%4.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)445.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)365.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.1455.7133.43
Cash Retained (M)365.24365.24365.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.14-55.71-33.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)276.10309.53331.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)94.4394.4394.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.923.283.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.923.283.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.784.134.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate-2.16%-1.16%-0.16%
Fair Value$43.79$54.89$67.72
Upside / Downside29.17%61.92%99.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)445.70440.55435.46430.43425.46420.55433.16
Payout Ratio18.05%32.44%46.83%61.22%75.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.46142.92203.93263.52321.69378.49400.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate-2.16%-1.16%-0.16%
Year 1 PV (M)133.11134.47135.84
Year 2 PV (M)176.90180.54184.21
Year 3 PV (M)212.90219.50226.23
Year 4 PV (M)242.07252.12262.48
Year 5 PV (M)265.27279.10293.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,556.899,003.199,467.92
Equity Value (M)9,587.1510,068.9310,570.18
Shares Outstanding (M)94.4394.4394.43
Fair Value$101.52$106.62$111.93
Upside / Downside199.48%214.53%230.19%

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