Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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F-Secure Oyj (FSECURE.HE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.00 - $1.49$1.23
Multi-Stage$1.90 - $2.09$1.99
Blended Fair Value$1.61
Current Price$1.91
Upside-15.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.070.070.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.10%3.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.212.631.58
Cash Retained (M)11.4611.4611.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.21-2.63-1.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.258.839.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)170.48170.48170.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.11
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.00$1.23$1.49
Upside / Downside-47.63%-35.47%-22.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21.0720.8620.6520.4420.2420.0420.64
Payout Ratio45.60%54.48%63.36%72.24%81.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.6111.3613.0814.7716.4218.0319.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)10.4510.5510.66
Year 2 PV (M)11.0611.2811.51
Year 3 PV (M)11.4711.8312.19
Year 4 PV (M)11.7212.2112.71
Year 5 PV (M)11.8412.4513.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)267.40281.33295.82
Equity Value (M)323.93339.65355.98
Shares Outstanding (M)170.48170.48170.48
Fair Value$1.90$1.99$2.09
Upside / Downside-0.52%4.31%9.32%

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