Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Forus S.A. (FORUS.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,896.01 - $3,885.06$2,658.52
Multi-Stage$2,147.86 - $2,352.45$2,248.25
Blended Fair Value$2,453.39
Current Price$2,139.90
Upside14.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.45%-2.69%44.1348.2645.4320.0413.8439.0940.8540.3948.5154.28
YoY Growth---8.56%6.23%126.73%44.77%-64.59%-4.29%1.14%-16.75%-10.63%-6.36%
Dividend Yield--2.10%2.97%2.90%1.81%0.97%5.36%2.35%1.71%1.84%2.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28,368.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12,108.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)16,259.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,673.633,546.022,127.61
Cash Retained (M)16,259.6016,259.6016,259.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,673.63-3,546.02-2,127.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)10,585.9712,713.5814,131.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)261.44261.44261.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share40.4948.6354.05
LTM Dividend per Share46.3146.3146.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share40.4948.6354.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend86.8194.94100.37
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate2.85%3.85%4.85%
Fair Value$1,896.01$2,658.52$3,885.06
Upside / Downside-11.40%24.24%81.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28,368.1529,459.5330,592.9031,769.8832,992.1334,261.4135,289.25
Payout Ratio42.68%52.15%61.61%71.07%80.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12,108.5515,362.2318,848.3422,579.9526,570.7830,835.2732,642.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate2.85%3.85%4.85%
Year 1 PV (M)14,145.4814,283.0214,420.56
Year 2 PV (M)15,980.8516,293.1316,608.44
Year 3 PV (M)17,628.4118,147.6418,676.97
Year 4 PV (M)19,101.0919,854.8920,630.78
Year 5 PV (M)20,411.0321,422.8222,474.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)474,271.84497,781.70522,214.77
Equity Value (M)561,538.71587,783.20615,025.84
Shares Outstanding (M)261.44261.44261.44
Fair Value$2,147.86$2,248.25$2,352.45
Upside / Downside0.37%5.06%9.93%

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