Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Falabella S.A. (FALABELLA.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8,658.05 - $26,227.08$13,766.67
Multi-Stage$9,815.79 - $10,773.40$10,285.55
Blended Fair Value$12,026.11
Current Price$4,950.00
Upside142.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-22.44%-10.41%23.773.60102.0237.0943.0684.7261.4485.7285.9078.68
YoY Growth--560.30%-96.47%175.04%-13.85%-49.17%37.89%-28.33%-0.21%9.18%10.26%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.14%5.58%1.47%1.32%4.49%1.22%1.48%1.55%1.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)863,843.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)221,686.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)642,157.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)172,768.78107,980.4964,788.29
Cash Retained (M)642,157.70642,157.70642,157.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-172,768.78-107,980.49-64,788.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)469,388.92534,177.22577,369.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,508.852,508.852,508.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share187.09212.92230.13
LTM Dividend per Share88.3688.3688.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share187.09212.92230.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend275.46301.28318.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate2.91%3.91%4.91%
Fair Value$8,658.05$13,766.67$26,227.08
Upside / Downside74.91%178.11%429.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)863,843.89897,587.42932,649.03969,080.231,006,934.501,046,267.441,077,655.46
Payout Ratio25.66%38.53%51.40%64.27%77.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)221,686.19345,842.30479,359.75622,780.42776,674.28941,640.70996,831.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate2.91%3.91%4.91%
Year 1 PV (M)322,578.05325,712.73328,847.41
Year 2 PV (M)417,037.35425,181.92433,405.26
Year 3 PV (M)505,364.85520,241.26535,406.79
Year 4 PV (M)587,848.88611,034.01634,898.29
Year 5 PV (M)664,765.83697,699.31731,925.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,128,696.7423,224,984.9124,364,298.26
Equity Value (M)24,626,291.7025,804,854.1427,028,781.30
Shares Outstanding (M)2,508.852,508.852,508.85
Fair Value$9,815.79$10,285.55$10,773.40
Upside / Downside98.30%107.79%117.64%

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