Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Erawan Hotel Growth Property Fund (ERWPF.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.73 - $7.96$6.85
Multi-Stage$14.19 - $15.68$14.92
Blended Fair Value$10.89
Current Price$8.55
Upside27.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS-25.20%-5.50%0.090.000.000.370.000.380.600.600.550.61
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-36.28%-0.15%8.39%-8.55%284.52%
Dividend Yield--1.05%0.00%0.00%8.31%0.00%7.49%9.83%7.85%5.74%6.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)180.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)140.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.0522.5313.52
Cash Retained (M)140.45140.45140.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.05-22.53-13.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)104.40117.92126.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)176.10176.10176.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.670.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.670.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.820.900.95
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-6.26%-5.26%-4.26%
Fair Value$5.73$6.85$7.96
Upside / Downside-32.93%-19.88%-6.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)180.25170.77161.79153.28145.22137.58141.71
Payout Ratio22.08%35.66%49.25%62.83%76.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.8060.9079.6896.31110.97123.83131.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-6.26%-5.26%-4.26%
Year 1 PV (M)56.2556.8557.45
Year 2 PV (M)67.9769.4370.90
Year 3 PV (M)75.8878.3480.84
Year 4 PV (M)80.7684.2687.87
Year 5 PV (M)83.2387.7692.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,134.702,251.012,372.35
Equity Value (M)2,498.792,627.652,761.91
Shares Outstanding (M)176.10176.10176.10
Fair Value$14.19$14.92$15.68
Upside / Downside65.96%74.52%83.44%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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