Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Elia Group SA/NV (ELI.BR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,036.92 - $1,914.78$1,794.43
Multi-Stage$300.31 - $328.84$314.31
Blended Fair Value$1,054.37
Current Price$97.75
Upside978.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.98%6.47%2.242.001.781.751.731.601.261.231.201.20
YoY Growth--11.99%12.32%2.05%1.11%7.98%26.95%2.60%2.12%0.53%-0.11%
Dividend Yield--3.01%1.77%1.34%1.52%1.78%2.03%2.20%2.60%2.46%2.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)754.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)230.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)523.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)150.9194.3256.59
Cash Retained (M)523.80523.80523.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-150.91-94.32-56.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)372.89429.48467.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)78.3778.3778.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.765.485.96
LTM Dividend per Share2.942.942.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.765.485.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.708.428.91
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,036.92$1,794.43$1,914.78
Upside / Downside960.79%1,735.73%1,858.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)754.55803.60855.83911.46970.701,033.801,064.81
Payout Ratio30.58%42.46%54.35%66.23%78.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)230.75341.25465.13603.68758.28930.42984.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)318.06321.07324.09
Year 2 PV (M)404.06411.76419.53
Year 3 PV (M)488.78502.81517.11
Year 4 PV (M)572.23594.24616.87
Year 5 PV (M)654.43686.03718.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,097.7822,116.8223,174.85
Equity Value (M)23,535.3524,632.7325,771.30
Shares Outstanding (M)78.3778.3778.37
Fair Value$300.31$314.31$328.84
Upside / Downside207.22%221.55%236.41%

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