Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Dharma Satya Nusantara Tbk (DSNG.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15,735.33 - $29,998.06$28,112.58
Multi-Stage$4,623.52 - $5,065.12$4,840.25
Blended Fair Value$16,476.41
Current Price$1,650.00
Upside898.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.40%18.59%22.0030.0020.0012.334.939.879.874.934.9310.00
YoY Growth---26.67%50.00%62.16%150.00%-50.00%0.00%100.00%0.00%-50.66%150.00%
Dividend Yield--2.89%4.44%2.82%1.93%0.86%3.01%2.49%1.14%0.99%1.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,598,867.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)254,396.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,344,471.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)319,773.40199,858.38119,915.03
Cash Retained (M)1,344,471.001,344,471.001,344,471.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-319,773.40-199,858.38-119,915.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,024,697.601,144,612.631,224,555.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,599.8410,599.8410,599.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share96.67107.98115.53
LTM Dividend per Share24.0024.0024.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share96.67107.98115.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend120.67131.98139.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15,735.33$28,112.58$29,998.06
Upside / Downside853.66%1,603.79%1,718.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,598,867.001,702,793.361,813,474.921,931,350.792,056,888.592,190,586.352,256,303.94
Payout Ratio15.91%30.73%45.55%60.36%75.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)254,396.00523,248.20825,976.351,165,848.451,546,414.171,971,527.722,087,081.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)487,573.76492,195.31496,816.86
Year 2 PV (M)717,187.62730,848.02744,637.31
Year 3 PV (M)943,278.31970,356.44997,947.89
Year 4 PV (M)1,165,886.181,210,722.871,256,840.51
Year 5 PV (M)1,385,051.121,451,949.611,521,408.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,309,608.8046,449,779.4748,671,859.52
Equity Value (M)49,008,585.7951,305,851.7353,689,510.55
Shares Outstanding (M)10,599.8410,599.8410,599.84
Fair Value$4,623.52$4,840.25$5,065.12
Upside / Downside180.21%193.35%206.98%

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