Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

DRDGOLD Limited (DRD.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$134.46 - $218.09$171.99
Multi-Stage$113.91 - $123.90$118.82
Blended Fair Value$145.40
Current Price$23.74
Upside512.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-5.25%49.75%1.532.601.831.822.282.010.000.150.180.90
YoY Growth---41.10%41.99%0.39%-19.91%13.53%0.00%-100.00%-16.60%-79.99%3,227.63%
Dividend Yield--6.45%16.42%9.19%18.48%15.26%7.44%0.00%4.11%4.33%10.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,276.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,335.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,941.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)655.35409.59245.76
Cash Retained (M)1,941.751,941.751,941.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-655.35-409.59-245.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,286.401,532.161,695.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)281.38281.38281.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.575.456.03
LTM Dividend per Share4.744.744.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.575.456.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.3210.1910.77
WACC / Discount Rate12.81%12.81%12.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$134.46$171.99$218.09
Upside / Downside466.39%624.47%818.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,276.753,489.743,716.573,958.154,215.434,489.434,624.11
Payout Ratio40.74%50.59%60.44%70.30%80.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,335.001,765.572,246.482,782.453,378.604,040.494,277.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.81%12.81%12.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,550.401,565.091,579.79
Year 2 PV (M)1,732.271,765.271,798.58
Year 3 PV (M)1,884.071,938.161,993.27
Year 4 PV (M)2,008.932,086.182,165.65
Year 5 PV (M)2,109.692,211.592,317.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,767.0223,866.6825,008.42
Equity Value (M)32,052.3833,432.9734,863.09
Shares Outstanding (M)281.38281.38281.38
Fair Value$113.91$118.82$123.90
Upside / Downside379.82%400.49%421.90%

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