Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chayo Group Public Company Limited (CHAYO.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.63 - $45.15$26.38
Multi-Stage$5.20 - $5.69$5.44
Blended Fair Value$15.91
Current Price$1.85
Upside760.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.65%0.00%0.030.000.000.000.000.020.050.000.040.00
YoY Growth--909.29%6.37%-22.18%-0.42%-80.07%-61.04%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.61%0.07%0.04%0.04%0.05%0.75%1.95%0.00%1.77%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)263.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)262.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.7532.9719.78
Cash Retained (M)262.18262.18262.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.75-32.97-19.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)209.43229.21242.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,161.711,161.711,161.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate7.30%7.30%7.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.63$26.38$45.15
Upside / Downside474.80%1,325.91%2,340.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)263.77280.91299.17318.62339.33361.38372.23
Payout Ratio0.60%18.48%36.36%54.24%72.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.5851.91108.78172.82244.72325.25344.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.30%7.30%7.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)47.9348.3848.83
Year 2 PV (M)92.7194.4896.26
Year 3 PV (M)135.98139.88143.86
Year 4 PV (M)177.77184.60191.64
Year 5 PV (M)218.11228.65239.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,367.145,626.375,895.53
Equity Value (M)6,039.646,322.376,615.71
Shares Outstanding (M)1,161.711,161.711,161.71
Fair Value$5.20$5.44$5.69
Upside / Downside181.02%194.18%207.83%

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