Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Citra Nusantara Gemilang Tbk. (CGAS.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.79 - $33.27$27.16
Multi-Stage$47.62 - $52.33$49.93
Blended Fair Value$38.55
Current Price$91.00
Upside-57.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%1.253.390.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---63.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.49%3.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,331.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,000.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,331.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)866.34541.47324.88
Cash Retained (M)1,331.721,331.721,331.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-866.34-541.47-324.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)465.38790.261,006.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,771.461,771.461,771.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.450.57
LTM Dividend per Share1.691.691.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.450.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.962.142.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.80%6.80%6.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$21.79$27.16$33.27
Upside / Downside-76.06%-70.15%-63.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,331.724,288.404,245.524,203.064,161.034,119.424,243.01
Payout Ratio69.26%73.41%77.55%81.70%85.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,000.003,147.913,292.573,434.013,572.303,707.483,924.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.80%6.80%6.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2,917.762,947.542,977.31
Year 2 PV (M)2,828.722,886.742,945.35
Year 3 PV (M)2,734.542,819.112,905.40
Year 4 PV (M)2,636.682,745.962,858.60
Year 5 PV (M)2,536.392,668.472,805.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)70,694.7674,376.0078,209.02
Equity Value (M)84,348.8588,443.8092,701.66
Shares Outstanding (M)1,771.461,771.461,771.46
Fair Value$47.62$49.93$52.33
Upside / Downside-47.68%-45.14%-42.49%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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