Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

CCL Industries Inc. (CCL-A.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$473.97 - $912.54$855.19
Multi-Stage$141.29 - $154.73$147.89
Blended Fair Value$501.54
Current Price$79.41
Upside531.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.25%18.46%1.171.060.960.850.730.690.520.460.400.30
YoY Growth--9.67%10.51%12.78%17.33%6.28%31.34%13.55%15.71%34.19%37.83%
Dividend Yield--1.66%1.53%1.43%1.51%1.05%1.60%0.95%0.71%0.68%0.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)811.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)219.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)591.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)162.22101.3960.83
Cash Retained (M)591.90591.90591.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-162.22-101.39-60.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)429.68490.51531.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)176.77176.77176.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.432.773.00
LTM Dividend per Share1.241.241.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.432.773.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.674.014.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$473.97$855.19$912.54
Upside / Downside496.87%976.93%1,049.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)811.10863.82919.97979.771,043.451,111.281,144.62
Payout Ratio27.03%39.62%52.22%64.81%77.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)219.20342.25480.36634.99807.681,000.151,058.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)318.89321.91324.93
Year 2 PV (M)417.03424.97432.99
Year 3 PV (M)513.65528.39543.42
Year 4 PV (M)608.75632.16656.24
Year 5 PV (M)702.37736.29771.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,415.3323,498.0024,622.10
Equity Value (M)24,976.0226,141.7327,351.21
Shares Outstanding (M)176.77176.77176.77
Fair Value$141.29$147.89$154.73
Upside / Downside77.93%86.23%94.85%

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