Definitive Analysis
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Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.12 - $54.73$47.87
Multi-Stage$6.92 - $7.57$7.24
Blended Fair Value$27.56
Current Price$2.43
Upside1,034.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-13.50%0.090.050.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.14
YoY Growth--91.86%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-64.24%
Dividend Yield--2.88%0.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)214.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)145.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.9326.8316.10
Cash Retained (M)145.11145.11145.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.93-26.83-16.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)102.19118.29129.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)779.92779.92779.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.12$47.87$54.73
Upside / Downside522.40%1,869.99%2,152.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)214.63228.58243.44259.26276.12294.06302.88
Payout Ratio32.39%43.91%55.43%66.96%78.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.52100.37134.95173.59216.69264.66280.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)92.8993.7894.66
Year 2 PV (M)115.59117.79120.01
Year 3 PV (M)137.61141.56145.59
Year 4 PV (M)158.98165.09171.38
Year 5 PV (M)179.70188.38197.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,713.794,941.475,177.86
Equity Value (M)5,398.565,648.065,906.88
Shares Outstanding (M)779.92779.92779.92
Fair Value$6.92$7.24$7.57
Upside / Downside184.85%198.02%211.68%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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