Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. (BBAR.BA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19,891.15 - $104,895.68$39,702.20
Multi-Stage$11,009.66 - $12,048.72$11,519.67
Blended Fair Value$25,610.93
Current Price$6,580.00
Upside289.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS78.21%123.76%147.740.4513.080.000.008.221.583.652.390.00
YoY Growth--32,455.02%-96.53%0.00%0.00%-100.00%419.18%-56.61%52.87%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.86%0.01%2.43%0.00%0.00%11.15%1.16%2.34%2.56%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)323,482.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45,124.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)278,357.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64,696.4140,435.2624,261.15
Cash Retained (M)278,357.58278,357.58278,357.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-64,696.41-40,435.26-24,261.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)213,661.17237,922.32254,096.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)613.30613.30613.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share348.38387.94414.31
LTM Dividend per Share73.5873.5873.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share348.38387.94414.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend421.96461.51487.89
WACC / Discount Rate7.74%7.74%7.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19,891.15$39,702.20$104,895.68
Upside / Downside202.30%503.38%1,494.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)323,482.05344,508.38366,901.43390,750.02416,148.77443,198.44456,494.39
Payout Ratio13.95%29.16%44.37%59.58%74.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45,124.47100,457.56162,793.30232,808.25311,237.34398,878.60422,257.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.74%7.74%7.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)92,366.9493,242.4694,117.97
Year 2 PV (M)137,627.24140,248.65142,894.80
Year 3 PV (M)180,967.34186,162.26191,455.66
Year 4 PV (M)222,447.47231,002.17239,801.28
Year 5 PV (M)262,126.22274,787.01287,932.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,856,685.456,139,565.556,433,272.13
Equity Value (M)6,752,220.667,065,008.117,389,474.21
Shares Outstanding (M)613.30613.30613.30
Fair Value$11,009.66$11,519.67$12,048.72
Upside / Downside67.32%75.07%83.11%

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