DDM Analysis: ALV

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$103.86 - $168.24	$132.79
Multi-Stage	$206.53 - $227.25	$216.69
Blended Fair Value	$174.74
Current Price	$123.50
Upside	41.49%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.18%	1.17%	2.80	2.88	2.87	2.11	0.69	2.78	2.74	2.67	2.60	2.51
YoY Growth	-	-	-2.67%	0.45%	35.76%	204.99%	-75.07%	1.26%	2.68%	2.91%	3.63%	0.41%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.17%	2.39%	3.07%	2.76%	0.75%	6.04%	3.57%	2.54%	3.53%	2.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	752.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	228.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	524.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	150.40	94.00	56.40
Cash Retained (M)	524.00	524.00	524.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-150.40	-94.00	-56.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)	373.60	430.00	467.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	78.08	78.08	78.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share	4.79	5.51	5.99
LTM Dividend per Share	2.92	2.92	2.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share	4.79	5.51	5.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend	7.71	8.43	8.91
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	-0.82%	0.18%	1.18%
Fair Value	$103.86	$132.79	$168.24
Upside / Downside	-15.90%	7.52%	36.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	752.00	753.35	754.70	756.05	757.41	758.77	781.53
Payout Ratio	30.32%	42.26%	54.19%	66.13%	78.06%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	228.00	318.33	408.98	499.96	591.26	682.89	722.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	-0.82%	0.18%	1.18%
Year 1 PV (M)	295.81	298.80	301.78
Year 2 PV (M)	353.17	360.33	367.56
Year 3 PV (M)	401.20	413.45	425.96
Year 4 PV (M)	440.90	458.95	477.56
Year 5 PV (M)	473.21	497.55	522.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)	14,160.52	14,888.95	15,647.05
Equity Value (M)	16,124.81	16,918.03	17,742.78
Shares Outstanding (M)	78.08	78.08	78.08
Fair Value	$206.53	$216.69	$227.25
Upside / Downside	67.23%	75.46%	84.01%

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Autoliv, Inc. (ALV)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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