DDM Analysis: ALKEY.PA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.82 - $2.94	$2.32
Multi-Stage	$5.17 - $5.71	$5.44
Blended Fair Value	$3.88
Current Price	$7.80
Upside	-50.25%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.00	0.03	0.20	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-100.00%	-86.66%	2,744.14%	-70.79%	49.61%	-13.61%	188.24%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	0.40%	4.34%	0.21%	0.84%	0.57%	0.41%	0.11%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2.25

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	0.53	0.33	0.20
Cash Retained (M)	2.25	2.25	2.25
(-) Cash Required (M)	-0.53	-0.33	-0.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1.71	1.92	2.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	15.62	15.62	15.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.12	0.13
LTM Dividend per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.12	0.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.14	0.15	0.16
WACC / Discount Rate	5.38%	5.38%	5.38%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$1.82	$2.32	$2.94
Upside / Downside	-76.69%	-70.20%	-62.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2.67	2.65	2.62	2.59	2.57	2.54	2.62
Payout Ratio	15.83%	30.66%	45.50%	60.33%	75.17%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.42	0.81	1.19	1.56	1.93	2.29	2.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.38%	5.38%	5.38%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	0.76	0.77	0.78
Year 2 PV (M)	1.05	1.07	1.09
Year 3 PV (M)	1.30	1.34	1.38
Year 4 PV (M)	1.50	1.56	1.63
Year 5 PV (M)	1.67	1.76	1.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)	74.52	78.40	82.44
Equity Value (M)	80.81	84.91	89.17
Shares Outstanding (M)	15.62	15.62	15.62
Fair Value	$5.17	$5.44	$5.71
Upside / Downside	-33.67%	-30.30%	-26.80%

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Keyrus S.A. (ALKEY.PA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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