Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - SpecialtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.84 - $75.30$63.88
Multi-Stage$103.09 - $113.61$108.24
Blended Fair Value$86.06
Current Price$84.65
Upside1.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.68%-1.11%1.351.331.271.311.371.471.411.391.371.43
YoY Growth--1.49%4.69%-3.03%-4.35%-6.76%4.23%1.43%1.45%-4.17%-5.26%
Dividend Yield--1.53%1.56%2.53%2.06%3.24%5.70%3.15%3.84%3.69%5.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)402.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)333.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.4050.2530.15
Cash Retained (M)333.00333.00333.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.40-50.25-30.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)252.60282.75302.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)50.3550.3550.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.025.626.01
LTM Dividend per Share1.371.371.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.025.626.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.396.997.39
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate-3.68%-2.68%-1.68%
Fair Value$52.84$63.88$75.30
Upside / Downside-37.58%-24.54%-11.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)402.00391.24380.77370.57360.65351.00361.53
Payout Ratio17.16%31.73%46.30%60.87%75.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.00124.15176.29225.55272.05315.90334.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate-3.68%-2.68%-1.68%
Year 1 PV (M)113.80114.98116.17
Year 2 PV (M)148.14151.23154.36
Year 3 PV (M)173.75179.21184.80
Year 4 PV (M)192.11200.21208.57
Year 5 PV (M)204.49215.32226.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,358.174,589.144,829.81
Equity Value (M)5,190.455,450.115,720.30
Shares Outstanding (M)50.3550.3550.35
Fair Value$103.09$108.24$113.61
Upside / Downside21.78%27.87%34.21%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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