Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.05 - $27.01$20.85
Multi-Stage$12.60 - $13.76$13.17
Blended Fair Value$17.01
Current Price$34.86
Upside-51.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.61%9.32%0.080.080.080.080.060.040.020.010.010.03
YoY Growth---0.57%0.57%1.74%44.35%53.21%100.00%30.00%11.11%-49.06%-26.39%
Dividend Yield--0.31%0.58%0.68%0.97%0.72%0.74%0.38%0.27%0.16%0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)535.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)497.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)107.0966.9340.16
Cash Retained (M)497.05497.05497.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-107.09-66.93-40.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)389.96430.12456.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)422.15422.15422.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.921.021.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.921.021.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.011.111.17
WACC / Discount Rate12.17%12.17%12.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.05$20.85$27.01
Upside / Downside-53.96%-40.20%-22.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)535.44570.24607.31646.78688.82733.59755.60
Payout Ratio7.17%23.74%40.30%56.87%73.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.39135.35244.76367.81505.83660.24698.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.17%12.17%12.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)119.53120.67121.80
Year 2 PV (M)190.89194.53198.20
Year 3 PV (M)253.34260.61268.02
Year 4 PV (M)307.69319.52331.69
Year 5 PV (M)354.68371.81389.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,094.684,292.464,497.80
Equity Value (M)5,320.825,559.605,807.12
Shares Outstanding (M)422.15422.15422.15
Fair Value$12.60$13.17$13.76
Upside / Downside-63.84%-62.22%-60.54%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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