Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Accelleron Industries AG (ACLN.SW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.87 - $46.44$38.23
Multi-Stage$62.15 - $68.31$65.17
Blended Fair Value$51.70
Current Price$70.33
Upside-26.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.940.810.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--15.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.83%2.60%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)343.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)182.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)160.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.6242.8925.73
Cash Retained (M)160.86160.86160.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.62-42.89-25.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)92.24117.98135.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)93.9193.9193.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.981.261.44
LTM Dividend per Share1.941.941.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.981.261.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.923.203.38
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$30.87$38.23$46.44
Upside / Downside-56.10%-45.64%-33.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)343.10339.67336.27332.91329.58326.28336.07
Payout Ratio53.11%60.49%67.87%75.25%82.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)182.23205.47228.22250.50272.31293.65310.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)189.60191.53193.47
Year 2 PV (M)194.32198.31202.34
Year 3 PV (M)196.81202.90209.11
Year 4 PV (M)197.42205.60214.04
Year 5 PV (M)196.45206.68217.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,861.925,115.095,378.70
Equity Value (M)5,836.526,120.116,414.98
Shares Outstanding (M)93.9193.9193.91
Fair Value$62.15$65.17$68.31
Upside / Downside-11.64%-7.34%-2.88%

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