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Definitive Analysis

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Benesse Holdings, Inc. (9783.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$519.28 - $767.12$637.99
Multi-Stage$1,307.13 - $1,437.17$1,370.87
Blended Fair Value$1,004.43
Current Price$2,585.00
Upside-61.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.70%-4.51%59.9954.9549.9649.9649.9672.4294.8594.7094.7294.72
YoY Growth--9.17%9.98%0.00%0.00%-31.00%-23.65%0.15%-0.01%0.00%-0.52%
Dividend Yield--2.32%2.99%2.27%1.81%1.73%2.82%2.41%2.23%3.94%3.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,442.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,787.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)655.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,288.40805.25483.15
Cash Retained (M)655.00655.00655.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,288.40-805.25-483.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)-633.40-150.25171.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)96.4796.4796.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share-6.57-1.561.78
LTM Dividend per Share59.9959.9959.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share-6.57-1.561.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend53.4258.4361.77
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-3.34%-2.34%-1.34%
Fair Value$519.28$637.99$767.12
Upside / Downside-79.91%-75.32%-70.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,442.006,291.396,144.306,000.655,860.365,723.345,895.04
Payout Ratio89.83%89.87%89.90%89.93%89.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,787.005,653.815,523.695,396.565,272.365,151.015,452.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-3.34%-2.34%-1.34%
Year 1 PV (M)5,249.135,303.445,357.74
Year 2 PV (M)4,761.264,860.284,960.33
Year 3 PV (M)4,318.734,454.164,592.39
Year 4 PV (M)3,917.334,081.974,251.74
Year 5 PV (M)3,553.243,740.883,936.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)104,296.64109,804.33115,542.29
Equity Value (M)126,096.33132,245.05138,640.84
Shares Outstanding (M)96.4796.4796.47
Fair Value$1,307.13$1,370.87$1,437.17
Upside / Downside-49.43%-46.97%-44.40%

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