Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hikari Tsushin, Inc. (9435.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$226,940.66 - $451,596.38$423,211.94
Multi-Stage$69,420.18 - $76,014.49$72,656.62
Blended Fair Value$247,934.28
Current Price$42,560.00
Upside482.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.11%15.19%687.68590.66540.85497.14461.80406.17353.40302.09233.46185.04
YoY Growth--16.43%9.21%8.79%7.65%13.70%14.93%16.99%29.40%26.17%10.64%
Dividend Yield--1.62%1.97%2.63%3.57%2.37%1.65%1.49%1.55%1.98%2.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)99,794.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29,166.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)70,628.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19,958.8012,474.257,484.55
Cash Retained (M)70,628.0070,628.0070,628.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-19,958.80-12,474.25-7,484.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)50,669.2058,153.7563,143.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.9543.9543.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,152.951,323.261,436.79
LTM Dividend per Share663.66663.66663.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,152.951,323.261,436.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend1,816.601,986.912,100.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$226,940.66$423,211.94$451,596.38
Upside / Downside433.23%894.39%961.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)99,794.00106,280.61113,188.85120,546.12128,381.62136,726.43140,828.22
Payout Ratio29.23%41.38%53.54%65.69%77.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29,166.0043,979.9460,596.4779,187.3399,938.98123,053.79130,266.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)40,967.7841,356.1041,744.42
Year 2 PV (M)52,580.2953,581.7954,592.75
Year 3 PV (M)64,005.7765,843.1567,715.35
Year 4 PV (M)75,246.4878,140.2581,116.69
Year 5 PV (M)86,304.6290,473.1694,801.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,731,738.372,863,682.353,000,676.15
Equity Value (M)3,050,843.313,193,076.813,340,646.61
Shares Outstanding (M)43.9543.9543.95
Fair Value$69,420.18$72,656.62$76,014.49
Upside / Downside63.11%70.72%78.61%

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