Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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AB&Company Co.,Ltd. (9251.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Personal Products & ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$652.39 - $1,005.54$816.59
Multi-Stage$1,451.98 - $1,598.63$1,523.86
Blended Fair Value$1,170.22
Current Price$960.00
Upside21.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%29.6829.610.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.58%3.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,009.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)397.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)612.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)201.80126.1375.68
Cash Retained (M)612.00612.00612.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-201.80-126.13-75.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)410.20485.88536.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.2214.2214.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share28.8534.1737.72
LTM Dividend per Share27.9227.9227.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share28.8534.1737.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend56.7762.0965.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$652.39$816.59$1,005.54
Upside / Downside-32.04%-14.94%4.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,009.00998.91988.92979.03969.24959.55988.34
Payout Ratio39.35%49.48%59.61%69.74%79.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)397.00494.23589.47682.76774.13863.59914.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)459.25463.94468.63
Year 2 PV (M)509.00519.44529.99
Year 3 PV (M)547.83564.78582.06
Year 4 PV (M)577.19601.11625.77
Year 5 PV (M)598.33629.49661.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,953.0718,887.9319,861.33
Equity Value (M)20,644.6821,666.6922,729.71
Shares Outstanding (M)14.2214.2214.22
Fair Value$1,451.98$1,523.86$1,598.63
Upside / Downside51.25%58.74%66.52%

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