Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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halmek holdings Co.,Ltd. (7119.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$527.91 - $819.20$662.71
Multi-Stage$1,210.67 - $1,333.50$1,270.87
Blended Fair Value$966.79
Current Price$1,085.00
Upside-10.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)619.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)219.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)400.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)123.8077.3846.43
Cash Retained (M)400.00400.00400.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-123.80-77.38-46.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)276.20322.63353.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.0211.0211.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share25.0729.2932.09
LTM Dividend per Share19.8819.8819.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share25.0729.2932.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend44.9549.1651.97
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$527.91$662.71$819.20
Upside / Downside-51.34%-38.92%-24.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)619.00612.81606.68600.62594.61588.66606.32
Payout Ratio35.38%46.30%57.23%68.15%79.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)219.00283.75347.19409.33470.19529.80560.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)264.13266.83269.52
Year 2 PV (M)300.83307.00313.23
Year 3 PV (M)330.14340.35350.77
Year 4 PV (M)353.00367.63382.71
Year 5 PV (M)370.24389.52409.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,719.0812,329.3212,964.72
Equity Value (M)13,337.4314,000.6514,690.55
Shares Outstanding (M)11.0211.0211.02
Fair Value$1,210.67$1,270.87$1,333.50
Upside / Downside11.58%17.13%22.90%

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