Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Alpha Purchase Co., Ltd. (7115.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$899.13 - $1,385.30$1,125.23
Multi-Stage$1,976.80 - $2,177.67$2,075.25
Blended Fair Value$1,600.24
Current Price$2,767.00
Upside-42.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%21.2514.1810.275.475.270.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--49.86%38.05%87.88%3.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.06%1.28%0.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)974.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)263.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)711.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)194.99121.8773.12
Cash Retained (M)711.74711.74711.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-194.99-121.87-73.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)516.74589.87638.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9.969.969.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share51.9059.2564.15
LTM Dividend per Share26.4426.4426.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share51.9059.2564.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend78.3485.6990.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$899.13$1,125.23$1,385.30
Upside / Downside-67.51%-59.33%-49.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)974.97965.22955.57946.01936.55927.19955.00
Payout Ratio27.00%39.60%52.20%64.80%77.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)263.23382.22498.80613.01724.89834.47883.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)355.14358.76362.38
Year 2 PV (M)430.62439.45448.37
Year 3 PV (M)491.72506.92522.44
Year 4 PV (M)540.26562.65585.73
Year 5 PV (M)577.86607.95639.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,284.8918,184.9619,122.13
Equity Value (M)19,680.4720,660.6821,680.33
Shares Outstanding (M)9.969.969.96
Fair Value$1,976.80$2,075.25$2,177.67
Upside / Downside-28.56%-25.00%-21.30%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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