Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hefei Kewell Power System Co.,Ltd. (688551.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.25 - $8.05$6.56
Multi-Stage$11.70 - $12.86$12.26
Blended Fair Value$9.41
Current Price$43.80
Upside-78.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS44.51%0.00%0.610.360.220.190.120.100.110.040.000.00
YoY Growth--67.70%65.90%14.77%56.86%25.84%-11.69%154.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.20%0.67%0.38%0.41%0.46%0.19%0.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)49.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.806.133.68
Cash Retained (M)15.2415.2415.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.80-6.13-3.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.449.1111.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)84.3184.3184.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.110.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.110.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.510.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.25$6.56$8.05
Upside / Downside-88.01%-85.02%-81.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)49.0048.5148.0347.5547.0746.6048.00
Payout Ratio68.90%73.12%77.34%81.56%85.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.7635.4737.1538.7840.3841.9444.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)32.9233.2533.59
Year 2 PV (M)31.9932.6433.31
Year 3 PV (M)30.9931.9532.92
Year 4 PV (M)29.9431.1832.46
Year 5 PV (M)28.8630.3631.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)831.31874.60919.67
Equity Value (M)986.001,033.991,083.88
Shares Outstanding (M)84.3184.3184.31
Fair Value$11.70$12.26$12.86
Upside / Downside-73.30%-72.00%-70.65%

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