Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hangzhou Huaguang Advanced Welding Materials Co., Ltd. (688379.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$142.33 - $367.93$344.81
Multi-Stage$52.41 - $57.37$54.84
Blended Fair Value$199.83
Current Price$55.16
Upside262.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.85%9.13%0.460.270.360.360.120.100.320.100.090.15
YoY Growth--71.47%-23.94%-1.69%214.39%19.04%-70.01%222.45%8.61%-37.78%-23.64%
Dividend Yield--1.85%1.66%1.85%2.00%0.55%0.19%0.64%0.00%0.18%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)159.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.9719.9811.99
Cash Retained (M)112.92112.92112.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.97-19.98-11.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)80.9592.94100.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)86.4186.4186.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.941.081.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.941.081.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.481.621.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$142.33$344.81$367.93
Upside / Downside158.04%525.10%567.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)159.87170.26181.33193.12205.67219.04225.61
Payout Ratio29.37%41.49%53.62%65.75%77.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.9570.6597.23126.97160.16197.13208.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)65.6566.2766.90
Year 2 PV (M)83.9785.5787.18
Year 3 PV (M)101.90104.82107.80
Year 4 PV (M)119.45124.04128.77
Year 5 PV (M)136.63143.23150.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,021.034,215.244,416.89
Equity Value (M)4,528.624,739.184,957.62
Shares Outstanding (M)86.4186.4186.41
Fair Value$52.41$54.84$57.37
Upside / Downside-4.99%-0.57%4.01%

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