Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited (688256.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.45 - $41.77$35.53
Multi-Stage$42.85 - $47.14$44.96
Blended Fair Value$40.24
Current Price$1,325.00
Upside-96.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,876.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,875.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)375.36234.60140.76
Cash Retained (M)1,875.231,875.231,875.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-375.36-234.60-140.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,499.871,640.631,734.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)420.30420.30420.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.573.904.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.573.904.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.573.914.13
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$29.45$35.53$41.77
Upside / Downside-97.78%-97.32%-96.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,876.801,858.031,839.451,821.061,802.851,784.821,838.36
Payout Ratio0.08%18.07%36.05%54.03%72.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.57335.69663.12983.981,298.351,606.341,700.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)302.39305.48308.57
Year 2 PV (M)538.11549.15560.30
Year 3 PV (M)719.29741.53764.23
Year 4 PV (M)854.96890.40926.92
Year 5 PV (M)952.861,002.481,054.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,643.5115,406.0416,200.00
Equity Value (M)18,011.1318,895.0719,814.16
Shares Outstanding (M)420.30420.30420.30
Fair Value$42.85$44.96$47.14
Upside / Downside-96.77%-96.61%-96.44%

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