Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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UCAP Cloud Information Technology Co.,Ltd. (688228.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.48 - $26.06$15.71
Multi-Stage$7.48 - $8.16$7.81
Blended Fair Value$11.76
Current Price$205.00
Upside-94.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.86%46.53%0.260.420.260.300.340.220.290.040.110.00
YoY Growth---37.97%61.21%-11.69%-12.00%55.56%-25.00%573.68%-60.02%2,193.62%-18.50%
Dividend Yield--0.40%0.83%0.44%0.78%0.94%0.28%0.32%0.05%0.12%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.614.132.48
Cash Retained (M)18.9818.9818.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.61-4.13-2.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.3714.8516.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)70.0070.0070.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.410.44
WACC / Discount Rate9.30%9.30%9.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.48$15.71$26.06
Upside / Downside-94.89%-92.34%-87.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.0535.2037.4939.9242.5245.2846.64
Payout Ratio42.58%52.07%61.55%71.03%80.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.0718.3323.0728.3634.2440.7543.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.30%9.30%9.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)16.6116.7716.93
Year 2 PV (M)18.9519.3119.68
Year 3 PV (M)21.1121.7222.34
Year 4 PV (M)23.1023.9924.90
Year 5 PV (M)24.9226.1227.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)418.65438.87459.87
Equity Value (M)523.34546.78571.08
Shares Outstanding (M)70.0070.0070.00
Fair Value$7.48$7.81$8.16
Upside / Downside-96.35%-96.19%-96.02%

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